Investment Memo

Tero

Lucia Fernandes (@lucia_climate) · Satellite-verified soil-carbon MRV for smallholder farming cooperatives.

WATCHSignal → decision: 0h

Trust Ledger

1 verified1 claimed0 contradicted

Every claim in this memo, checked against how well it holds up.

Company Snapshot

What the company does and where it sits in the market.

Tero operates in Climate AI (São Paulo, BR, Pre-seed). Satellite-verified soil-carbon MRV for smallholder farming cooperatives. Verified carbon-credit MRV is under-tooled for smallholder cooperatives specifically; buyer-side demand from carbon registries is rising.

Investment Hypotheses

The core bets underlying this memo, each traced to its evidence.

Team quality: First-author on a cited remote-sensing paper; repo now shows a working ingestion pipeline rather than pure research code. Not yet activated via outreach.^{⟦ev-lf-paper⟧}
Market wedge: Verified carbon-credit MRV is under-tooled for smallholder cooperatives specifically; buyer-side demand from carbon registries is rising.
Defensibility: Thesis-shaped; needs the founder to commit full-time before conviction can rise further.
Founder credibility: First-author, peer-reviewed soil-carbon remote sensing paper^{⟦ev-lf-paper⟧}VERIFIED

SWOT

Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats — shown only where evidence exists.

Strengths

First-author, peer-reviewed soil-carbon remote sensing paper^{⟦ev-lf-paper⟧}VERIFIED

Opportunities

Founder axis improving: First-author on a cited remote-sensing paper; repo now shows a working ingestion pipeline rather than pure research code. Not yet activated via outreach.^{⟦ev-lf-paper⟧}
Market axis improving (bullish): Verified carbon-credit MRV is under-tooled for smallholder cooperatives specifically; buyer-side demand from carbon registries is rising.
arXiv Affiliation Defection: Co-author list shrinking to solo on recent commits; affiliation still shows university email (not yet flipped).

Problem & Product

The problem being solved and how the product addresses it.

Problem: Verified carbon-credit MRV is under-tooled for smallholder cooperatives specifically; buyer-side demand from carbon registries is rising.

Product: Satellite-verified soil-carbon MRV for smallholder farming cooperatives. Thesis-shaped; needs the founder to commit full-time before conviction can rise further.

Traction & KPIs

Traction and revenue signals, with unverified gaps flagged explicitly.

ARR: not applicable — pre-revenue stage
Cap table: not disclosed
Financials / P&L: unavailable at this stage

1 sourcebehind the citations above — duplicates the inline ⟦refs⟧, expand to inspect the raw excerpt.

Three-Axis Verdict

never averaged

Founder, market, and idea-fit scored independently — one weak axis can't be masked by a strong one.

Founder

62improving

Market

60improving

BULLISH

Idea × Market

55stable

Strong latent signal but not yet activated; queue for outbound outreach before running the Arena.

The Closer

$100K Check

The investment decision itself — deploy, hold, or decline — with every number traced to a receipt.

Maschmeyer Group2026-07-22

Pay to the order of

Lucia Fernandes / Tero

$100,000

One Hundred Thousand Dollars

Memo · Pre-seed · Maschmeyer Group

Held — pending one signal: Strong latent signal but not yet activated; queue for outbound outreach before running the Arena.

Evidence trace

Armed and waiting — receipts surface the moment you deploy.

PROOF ENGINE · STANDBY